Roberto Gorelli points our attention at a recently published meteor related paper:

A calibrated dust-trail model of the Leonid meteoroid stream and forecasts of the 2031–2035 encounters

This article has been submitted for publication by Shinsuke Abe.

Abstract: We combine N-body dust-trail generation with a fast nodal-encounter forecast and apply the model to the Leonid returns of 2031–2035. The dominant error is neither the ejection physics nor the encounter machinery but the parent trajectory at the moment of ejection: a back-integration of 55P/TempelTuttle places the pre-1700 ejection sites more than 1 au from the fitted apparition solutions. We therefore anchor the ejection sites, not the dust, to the JPL Horizons ephemeris. Anchoring removes an age-proportional bias in the modelled nodes and, for the first time in this model, reproduces the classical attribution of the 2001 and 2002 storms to the 1767 trail, with peak times accurate to 1 and 40 min. A second systematic is not a property of the parent: a forecast read from a stored dataset holds each node where the snapshot left it, while the real node moves a median 1.2 × 10−2 au in 0.12 revolutions. Two frozen snapshots of the same trail disagree by as much, so each year uses its own epoch-matched dataset. A completeness audit — every encounter the model predicts, not only the nominated ones — overpredicts the 1932 trail eighteenfold. We predict two comparable maxima on 2034 November 18, zenithal hourly rate ≈ 1.4 × 103 at 03:30 UT from the 1932 trail and ≈ 1.2×103 at 23:45 UT from the 1733 trail, with ≈ 1.4×103 in 2033 and ≈ 650 in 2035. Which dominates is a direct observational test of the trail-density term.

You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2608.25456 (59 pages).

 

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