Roberto Gorelli points our attention at a recently published meteor related paper:

Expected Fragment Distribution from the First Interstellar Meteor CNEOS 2014-01-08

This article has been submitted for publication by Amory Tillinghast-Raby, Abraham Loeb, and Amir Siraj.

Abstract: The fireball of the first interstellar meteor, CNEOS 2014-01-08 (IM1) (Siraj & Loeb 2019), was detected off the northern coast of Papua New Guinea. A recently announced ocean expedition will retrieve any extant fragments by towing a magnetic sled across a 10 km x 10 km area of ocean floor approximately 300 km north of Manus Island (Siraj, Loeb, & Gallaudet 2022). We formulate a model that includes both the probabilistic mass distribution of meteor fragments immediately after the fragmentation event, the ablation of the fragments, and the geographic distribution of post-ablation fragments along the ground track trajectory of the bulk fragment cloud. We apply this model to IM1 to provide a heuristic estimate of the impactor’s post-ablation fragment mass distribution, constructed through a Monte Carlo simulation. We find between ∼ 14% and ∼ 36% of IM1 fragments are expected to survive ablation with a mass ≥ .001 g, and also provide an estimation for the geographic distribution of post-ablation fragments.

You can download this paper for free: (10 pages).


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