Roberto Gorelli points our attention at a recently published meteor related paper:

Modeling the past and future activity of the Halleyids meteor showers

This article has been submitted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics by A. Egal, P. Wiegert, P. G. Brown, M. Campbell-Brown, and D. Vida. 

Abstract: Context. We present a new numerical model of the η-Aquariid and Orionid meteor showers.
Aims. The model investigates the origin, variability and age of the η-Aquariid and Orionid apparitions from 1985 to the present day, in order to forecast their activity over the next several decades.
Methods. Through the numerical integration of millions of simulated meteoroids and a custom-made particle weighting scheme, we model the characteristics of every η-Aquariid and Orionid apparition between 1985 and 2050. The modeled showers are calibrated using 35 years of meteor observations including the showers activity profiles and interannual variability.
Results. Our model reproduces the general characteristics of the present-day η-Aquariids, and part of the Orionid activity. Simulations suggest that the age of the η-Aquariids somewhat exceeds 5000 years, while a greater fraction of the Orionids are composed of older material. The 1:6 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter plays a major role in generating some (but not all) Halleyid stream outbursts. We find consistent evidence for a periodicity of 11.8 years in both the observations and modeled maximum meteor rates for the Orionids. A weaker evidence of a 10.7 year period in the peak activity for the η-Aquariids needs to be investigated with future meteor observations. The extension of our model to future years predicts no significant Orionid outburst through 2050 and four significant η-Aquariid outbursts in 2023, 2024, 2045 and 2046.

You can download this paper for free: (30 pages).


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