Roberto Gorelli points our attention at a recently published meteor related paper:

Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4

This article has been submitted for publication  by Yifan He, Yixuan Wu, Yifei Jiao, Wen-Yue Dai, Xin Liu, Bin Cheng, and Hexi Baoyin.

Abstract: The near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4—a ∼60m rocky object that was once considered a potential Earth impactor—has since been ruled out for Earth but retained a ∼4.3% probability of striking the Moon in 2032. Such an impact, with equivalent kinetic energy of ∼6.5Mt TNT, is expected to produce a ∼1km crater on the Moon, and will be the most energetic lunar impact event ever recorded in human history. Despite the associated risk, this scenario offers a rare and valuable scientific opportunity. Using a hybrid framework combining Monte Carlo orbital propagation, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) impact modeling, and N-body ejecta dynamics, we evaluate the physical outcomes and propose the observation timelines of this rare event. Our results suggest an optical flash of visual magnitude from −2.5 to −3lasting several minutes directly after the impact, followed by hours of infrared afterglow from ∼2000K molten rock cooling to a few hundreds K. The associated seismic energy release would lead to a global-scale lunar reverberation (magnitude ∼5.0) that can be detectable by any modern seismometers. Furthermore, the impact would throw out ∼ 108kg debris to escape the lunar gravity, with a small fraction reaching Earth to produce a lunar meteor outburst within 100 years. Finally, we integrate these results into a coordinated observation timeline, identifying the best detection windows for ground-based telescopes, lunar orbiters and surface stations.

You can download this paper for free: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2601.10666 (14 pages).

 

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